First the bad news. As previously reported, growth in the organic food sector has slowed considerably as a result of the economic downturn. This is particularly true in countries regarded as the heavy hitters in the industry - the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Germany.
In the US, for example, sales were up 5.6 percent on the previous year last December, compared with 25.6 percent growth a year earlier. In Germany, growth has slowed from 14 percent in late 2007 to 10 percent late last year. In Britain, the mood was even more sombre, with a drop from 16 percent to a mere 2 percent last November.
But here's the good news. While the industry has clearly taken a big hit worldwide, it is growing, which is more than can be said of much of the economy. And, apart from Britain, where some pundits predict sales will go into the red, the outlook is for continued growth.
Tom Pirovano, director of industry insights at market research firm The Nielsen Co, told Reuters news agency that he believed most organic consumers were committed to the sector.
"I'm not convinced that we are going to see big declines in organics any time soon," he said.
Ronnie Cummins, national director of the Organic Consumers Association, agrees that core supporters are simply not prepared to return to a highly-processed diet.
"They are trying to stretch their money but they are not willing to stop buying organic," he said. "We think in the long run the prognosis is good. The energy crisis and climate change can only really be addressed with organic production."
Similarly, in Germany and France, the mood is one of optimism. Elisabeth Mercer, the head of Agence Bio, the country's main organic food group, says demand is still rising.
"In Europe, apart maybe from the UK where the market seems more fragile, I do not believe there will be a drop in consumption this year although growth rates may be less spectacular," she said.
Even in the UK, Patrick Holden, the director of the Soil Association, the country's leading organic certifying body, remains upbeat, particularly about local organic produce.
Like Ronnie Cummins, he draws the distinction between "deep green", or committed, consumers and "light green", or swinging, consumers. He says the former constitute 80 percent of demand for organic produce and make their choices based on health and environmental reasons not cost. These, he believes, are in for the long haul.
