If heat-trapping emissions are not dramatically curtailed, global warming will significantly harm Minnesota's climate and economy, according to a new report released today by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The report also shows how clean energy strategies-such as those proposed in a comprehensive bill the House of Representatives will vote on this Friday-would help blunt the extent and severity of climate change in Minnesota and nationally.

"The Midwest climate is already changing. Over the past 50 years, we've seen higher average annual temperatures, more frequent downpours, longer growing seasons, and fewer cold snaps," said Don Wuebbles, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and a co-author of the report. "The changes documented in this report are sobering. The silver lining is that we can avoid the worst of them if we dramatically cut global warming emissions starting in the very near future."

The peer-reviewed report, "Confronting Climate Change in Minnesota," describes how Minnesota's climate could change under two scenarios: one assumes a business-as-usual increase in heat-trapping emissions from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and the other assumes substantially lower emissions due to an increased reliance on clean energy sources. The report compares the two scenarios to a baseline period between 1961 and 1990.

The report finds that, under the higher, business-as-usual emissions scenario:

CLIMATE: Average summer temperatures in Minnesota would be as much as 3 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) higher in the next several decades and as much as 12°F higher by the end of the century. Minneapolis-St.Paul would experience almost 70 days per summer with highs over 90 °F compared to about 14 days per summer currently, and almost a month of days per summer over 100°F compared to about two days per summer currently. Minneapolis-St.Paul also would face at least two heat waves per summer like the one that killed hundreds in Chicago in 1995.

AGRICULTURE: Crops and livestock would experience substantially more heat stress, depressing crop yields and livestock productivity. Warmer winters and a growing season up to six weeks longer would enable pests such as the corn rootworm and European corn borer to expand their range. Crop production would be inhibited by changing rain patterns, ranging from wetter springs (which delay planting and increase flood risk) to almost 15 percent less rain during the increasingly hot summers.

EXTREME WEATHER: Heavy rains would become more common throughout the year, leading to a greater incidence of flash flooding. Winters and springs, when the flood risk is already high, would become 30 percent wetter.

HEALTH: Hotter weather causes more severe smog problems (assuming similar levels of tailpipe and smokestack emissions). This would have serious consequences for public health, including a greater incidence of asthma attacks and other respiratory conditions.

The UCS report on Minnesota comes a week after the release of a comprehensive national report by 13 federal agencies. The U.S. government report reviewed the same higher and lower emissions scenarios and similarly found that we can make choices today that will enable the nation to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.   

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