January 31, 2004 The Japan Times by D.P. CONSIDINE

I'm neither a vegetarian nor an animal-rights advocate -- just a rationale member of the 6-billion person human race, which is set to double in size in the next 50 years. Population growth and improving standards of living are putting pressures on natural resources, including water and arable land, not only to feed the growing number of people but also to feed them in the manner of "developed" societies. The question of "sustainability" arises in this context.

Some people would argue that HIV is nature's way of reining in unchecked human expansion and, likewise, that mad cow disease, formally known as bovine spongiform encephalitis (BSE), is forcing beef-eating cultures to reconsider their taste for this luxury food. Mad cow disease, like its human version Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD), is just one of several deadly progressive neurological disorders called transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The operative word is transmissible -- across species.

The idea of recycling "unused" parts of animals to feed other animals is an old concept but today's "intensive farming" methods have short-circuited the time-consuming process of going through the many levels of the food chain. A modern process called rendering uses a low temperature vacuum system to strip bones of flesh, including infected nervous-system tissue.

In the old days of commercial rendering this stew was boiled, effectively killing many harmful microbes. Feed made of rendered material is a cheap substitute for grain, and helps keep meat costs down. The low temperature vacuum system has made the rendering process less expensive, but also less safe.

Rendered feed seems to be the medium of transmission for this cross-species neurological disease. Whatever the agent, prion protein or mysterious virus, the fact remains that from now on raising animals to supply our complex-protein needs is going to be much more expensive and always tainted with fear. Nutritional experts agree that Western adults consume far more complex protein and fat than is necessary to sustain good health. In fact, the amounts consumed contribute to poor health and disease.

The world is facing an assault on its sources of complex protein: an epidemic chicken virus in China a few years ago, mad cow disease, a recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease in England and depleted fish stocks in the oceans. The demand for meat increases as societies develop, and the supply is going to become more expensive to produce. Given that the problems will become exponential as the population doubles in the coming 50 years, it seems safe to conclude that we will eat much less complex protein. Meat in particular will become a luxury food.

The word "luxury" implies a condition of abundance or great ease and comfort. Californians had this situation regarding electrical energy and are now forced to either do without or pay more. The same will be true for those in the world who wish to consume complex protein in the form of mammals, fowl and fish.

Some basic terminology and facts offered by environmental expert Bill McKibben are worth noting. The term "carrying capacity" refers to the amount of land, water and other natural resources needed to support human beings. Obviously a nomadic tribesman requires less natural resources than say a person living in a Manhattan penthouse apartment with an attendant lifestyle.

On a yearly basis how many hectares of land does each American need to supply the food he or she eats, the grain needed to feed the animals he or she eats, the paper and furniture/houses he or she uses? How much water is needed to not only drink and wash (body and clothes) but to irrigate the avocado and lettuce groves in arid California? How much oil is used to produce energy and plastics? Needless to say, the "footprint" of each American is big, over 5 hectares. It's about the same for the other rich industrialized nations.

Of course, the real footprint of a human being is pretty small. We could stand all the people of the world on half of Rhode Island. If each person had a Tokyo-size apartment, everyone could live in a space half the size of Texas. We have 90 percent of the current world population striving to attain the "mode of life" of the 600 million or so citizens of the developed countries.

According to Stanford biologist Peter Vitousek, the evidence indicates we are already approaching the planet's biophysical limits. Consider the fact that it takes 4 kilograms of grain to produce 1 kilogram of pork, and it takes three times that amount of grain to produce one kilogram of beef. Producing a ton of grain consumes a thousand tons of water. Add another 6 billion people and the arithmetic is daunting. Of course, we will want our juicy steak on special occasions but it will cost the equivalent of hand-fed Kobe beef, about $220 per kilogram. It will be accompanied with a pedigree and a certificate of assurance (feeding history, medications, etc).

The logical and ecological reasons to change our eating habits, especially meat, sound convincing. Unfortunately, appeals to logic seldom persuade when it comes to our appetites for food and sex. However, fatal nervous system disorders, such as CJD or BSE, just may result in large-scale behavioral change for the betterment and survival of all.

D.P. Considine, president of Considine Mishima Communications, teaches at Hosei University.